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Authors would like to Aopen B2945-RT anonymous reviewers for their constructive and helpful comments on earlier drafts. The exploration of possible future land use and cover change LUCC has been identified as a key issue in land change science Verburg et al ; Lambin and Geist, Anthropogenic disturbance, and more specifically conversion into urban land uses, is one of the most environmentally significant types of LUCC.
Urban growth can lead to dramatic social and ecological consequences affecting, for example human mortality due Aopen B2945-RT heat waves El Abidine El Morjani et al,urban climate Aguejdad et al,biodiversity Forys and Allen, ; Clergeau et al,water Aopen B2945-RT Tu et al, and other environmental issues Johnson, It represents useful information highlighting the impacts of un desirable futures that may be used by stakeholders to define a consistent management strategy according to social and environmental expectations. It requires the use of computation simulations using LUCC models combined with scenarios.
Numerous models have already been developed over the last two decades and used for projecting urban growth at various scales. Some are specifically dedicated to urban Aopen B2945-RT decades for e.
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We choose the SLEUTH model Clarke et al, for several reasons but the main one is its ability to reproduce various types of urban patterns scattered, edged, along network infrastructure and their emergence. They are Aopen B2945-RT translated into quantitative parameters that feed spatially explicit models whose simulated outcomes illustrate the narratives.
The opposite approach assumes that simulated outcomes provide quantitative scenarios. Various modeling techniques Aopen B2945-RT be used for these two main approaches aiming to explore the future.
Such forecasts have been shown to be Aopen B2945-RT for creative scenario-based land use planning Xiang and Clarke, LUCC models exhibit more or less ability to simulate a wide diversity of futures due to their design and architecture, especially those that are path-dependent Brown et al. The second part section 3 lists the materials and methods: The need for non path-dependent urban growth models for prospective and forecasting 5Two contrasting and complementary modeling approaches can be distinguished based on the definition of path-dependent models Brown et al.
First, we assume the path-dependent approach aims at mimicking past land changes into the future based on the calibration phase on a Aopen B2945-RT period, using internal models functionality as described by Mas et al. Various amounts and rates of LUCC can be computed in order to produce different scenarios. For example, some models use Markov chains or probability matrices computed from the input maps to estimate future LUCC by extending the observed trend forward to a greater or lesser degree.
The estimation of suitable LUCC land allocation is computed based on Aopen B2945-RT comparison of driving factors with the observed LUCC Kolb et al, using logistic regression or artificial neural nets for example. In these forecasts, the influence of the driving forces is not usually modified during the simulation. Finally, such approaches assume an equilibrium state within the study area during the model calibration and simulation phases.
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These models are particularly suitable for simulating trend-based scenarios, i. They are inherently used within the SAS approach. Path-dependent models can be used within the SAS approach as well. In this case, the parameterization Aopen B2945-RT the future Aopen B2945-RT demand does not depend on input maps used to calibrate the future amount of changes. Some studies illustrate this approach e.
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However, this kind of models use suitability maps to allocate future changes that are defined by comparing past changes occurred during the period covered by these two input maps for instance with spatially explicit drivers such as the elevation, the Aopen B2945-RT, or the distance from a land cover using statistical method. Since the allocation of future land changes depend of suitability maps, the allocation remains path-dependent while the land demand is not. They are built using various robust and rigorous methodological approaches Amer et al. The narrative is the plan that explains how the present becomes the future, and that relates directly to some manipulation of the model or its parameters, and the projections can be chosen to encourage creative thinking during the scenario-based planning process.
Hence, considering that these kinds of scenarios are deliberately imaginative, some of these models may Aopen B2945-RT computational limitations for simulating various types of scenarios as they were simply not initially Aopen B2945-RT for that purpose. Moreover, the urban system under study will not remain stationary over time. AOpen MPVX Raid Driver R June 9 AOpen BR Video Driver R_PV AOpen BRT Chipset Driver R_PV. OS Support WinXP, WinXP Pro x Specifications: Model B Note: ViiV* Volume(liters): L Input Volotage: AC ~V TV Out: (composite, component.